I am a PhD candidate in Economics at Indiana University, specializing in Applied Economics with focus on International Trade and Political Economy. My current main research focuses on the dynamics of trade agreements, customs union stability, and policy coordination across emerging economies, particularly in Latin America. I also work at the intersection between Public Finance and Political Economy, with special focus on public banks, budgetary processes and social expenditure. Currently, I am also a Graduate Assistant at the Tobias Center for Innovation in International Development.
Research Interests
- • International Trade Theory and Policy
- • Political Economy
- • Latin American Economics
- • Public Finance
- • Trade Agreement Negotiations
Job Market Paper
Primary research contribution
External Negotiations and Customs Union Stability
Guilherme Paiva Pinto • Job Market Paper
Persistent exit threats challenge the stability of customs unions, yet withdrawals are rare. This paper applies a structural model to study internal stability under external trade pressures within Mercosur, the largest free trade agreement in South America. The framework incorporates external bargaining, asymmetric tariffs, and is calibrated with sectoral trade data from 2004–2017, using counterfactual negotiations with the United States, China, and the European Union.
I document gains and losses from scenarios of single-country or bloc negotiations under each setup. Results show that smaller members gain more from bloc negotiations in GDP terms; although larger members also gain, they face concentrated industry losses, helping explain why the bloc stumbles in large negotiations. Benefits from joint negotiation vary widely, with small countries gaining the most while others experience limited improvements.
Interactive Research Explainer
Mercosur customs union stability
Explore the interactive walkthrough of the Mercosur research: motivation, trade policy, partner dynamics, and why small members gain while large members block negotiations. Check on /mercosur.
Working Papers & Projects
Politics and Public Banks: BNDES Loans to Local Governments in Brazil
Economía LACEA Journal (Accepted, Forthcoming 2025)
Guilherme Paiva Pinto (Indiana University, USA), Mauricio S. Bugarin (Universidade de Brasília, Brazil), Rodrigo Schneider (Skidmore College, US)
Conference presentations (forthcoming/accepted): Brazilian Econometric Society Meeting (SBE 2025), Econometric Society European Winter Meeting (EWMES 2025), Latin American Law and Economics (LAWLE 2024)
This study advances a quantitative political economy analysis of development banking within federative systems, focusing on Brazil's National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES). Moving beyond traditional fiscal transfer models, we investigate the mechanisms through which federal credit operations are allocated to municipal governments, emphasizing the political incentives that influence these disbursements.
We adapt the Strategic Partisan Transfers Hypothesis (SPTH) to the development banking context, formalizing the interaction between federal, state, and local political alignments within Brazil's regulatory structure.
Measuring Reciprocity in Trade Agreements Renegotiations
Work in progress
This project explores how reciprocity is measured and operationalized in the context of trade agreement renegotiations, with particular attention to the institutional and political economy challenges faced by developing countries.
JMP Explainer Video
A short video generated by the AI of Notebook LM explaining the core ideas behind my Job Market Paper.
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Teaching Experience
W. Phillip Saunders Award
Outstanding Introductory Economics Associate Instructor, Indiana University
Associate Instructor
Request SyllabusFundamentals of Economics for Business I
Microeconomics • Undergraduate Level
Fall 2021, Spring 2022
Syllabus AvailableIntroduction to microeconomic principles including supply and demand, market structures, consumer behavior, and firm decision-making. Emphasis on business applications and real-world examples.
Fundamentals of Economics for Business II and Fundamentals of Economics II
Macroeconomics • Undergraduate Level
Fall 2022 and Spring 2023/Summer 2023
Syllabus AvailableCovers macroeconomic topics such as GDP, inflation, unemployment, fiscal and monetary policy, and international finance. Focus on policy debates, empirical applications, and macroeconomic modeling exercises.
Game Theory and Business Strategy
Applied Microeconomics • Undergraduate Level
Fall 2023
Syllabus AvailableStrategic decision-making in competitive environments. Topics include Nash equilibrium, sequential games, repeated games, and applications to economics and business strategy.
Survey of International Economics
Trade and International Finance • Undergraduate Level
Spring 2024, Spring 2025
Syllabus AvailableIntroduction to international trade theory, trade policy, exchange rates, and balance of payments. Emphasis on current global economic issues and policy debates.
Teaching Philosophy
I’m happy to share my teaching philosophy upon request.
Request Teaching PhilosophyContact
I am on the job market for the 2025-2026 academic year and available for interviews.
gppinto@iu.edu
Location
Bloomington, Indiana, USA
@guilhermepaivap
Background: Mucuripe lighthouse in Ceará, Brazil.